LAKE ARROWHEAD LIVING
         Arrowhead Woods & Lakefronts          
Cool, mile high boating, golf, hiking, national Forests & family fun   gurubob@earthlink.net    800/ 987-9320    Weather Underground

Written & published by Bob and Patsy Bailey Serving in Lake Arrowhead since 1989.   For over two decades we have analyzed and reported on the changing character and future thinking  for Lake Arrowhead.  Questions? Call.   CAR License Bob 01040125 & Patsy 01231486

 SALES AND PRICES CRASHED FOR 4 YEARS. RECOVERY BEGAN IN NOVEMBER AS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ROSE.

SHOW ME THE MONEY. A great start for 2010. Prices turned up in November 2009 after a four year decline - the bubble had burst. The peak was 2006 when the median price hit $$480,000.

The fun ended with a sale price free-fall of 62% to the end of 2009. We'd like to blame foreclosures, 25% of sales in the last two years, BUT sales were at the lowest in 30 years; 258 homes sold in Arrowhead Woods in 2008 and 300 homes sold in 2009. As sales continue to rise in 2010, as they did in 2009, 16% over 2008, bank sales will have diminishing influence on  this market.

January had only 20 sales, yet reached a median of $396,500. Anomaly? Clearly we cannot expect to see prices rise without a significant increase in sales. In the weeks ahead we will examine the entire decade - 2000 to 2009 in every age bracket to see where our price structure has been and where it is likely to go
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CHEERS, Bob and Patsy 2/ 4/ 2010
TREND-LINE   SOLD IN     December 2009   December 2008   TOTAL for 2009     TOTAL  2008  
Arrowhead Woods   Median Sold   $343,500   $390,000   $325,000   $399,500
and Lakefronts   Number Sold   34   19   300   258
December 31, 2009   Highest Sold    $689,000   $1,350,000   $4,250,000   $5,950,000
FINAL FOR 2009 Table on right shows a 16% increase in homes sold over 2008 and a 19% drop in the median price.   The worst is over.

PAST COMMENTARY... Scroll through the data; pick up on the trends for your home, your neighborhood.   800/ 987-9320

LAKE ARROWHEAD REAL ESTATE TAKES A HOLIDAY. Four seasons on top of a mountain reaches the ultimate with winter snows. It began on Tuesday, heavy, through the night and kept coming. Arrowhead communities have had a near constant snowfall for four days - 3-4 feet. From our deck the snow on the trees and peaks is spectacular. If you are thinking of coming to the mountains, always check http://www.rimoftheworld.net/  for weather, Alerts, Caltrans, and the ever-fun Webcams. A sad aside, Putty Henck, a mountain icon, pioneering family passed away last week.
 		 ARROWHEAD MOUNTAIN COMMUNITES HAD A WHITE OUT, at times. Blowing snow, steady flakes and sleet turned driving into a five mile per hour move.  Even Paradise has it moments. The main roads are all open, in good shape for four wheel drive and/ or chains. The Highway Patrol mandated chains for all vehicles on Friday with the storm at its' peak. The mandate has been reduced to chains for two wheel drive. This is Grizzly Road, our home street. Part of it is still not plowed. Try to look way ahead before venturing. CHEERS, Bob & Patsy  1/23/2010

ARROWHEAD WOODS SALES INCREASED 16% IN 2009 REVERSING A FIVE YEAR DECLINE; COMING UP FROM 3 LOWEST YEARS IN 30 YEARS.  Sales in the last quarter of 2009 shot up 49% year over year. Exciting news! Confidence is up sharply for Lake Arrowhead home shoppers. Rising sales are essential to building a base for a price recovery. Economists forecast a recovery of 10% increased sales with prices holding steady to fractionally up.
Note: Chart below covers 30 years. Chart on the right covers 10 years.

published 1/16/2010		 2009 PRICES FELT LIKE IT WAS 2004. Our resort community opened the decade with a median home price of $218,000. The first 'bubble' year, 2004, was $349,000. We peaked at $480,000 in 2006 - a rise of 37% inside the bubble. The ten year run ended at $325,000 in 2009, down 7% from 2004. At this point prices are settling but vary greatly from one price bracket to another. In 2010 we will likely see a new price structure for all homes in Lake Arrowhead.            CHEERS, Bob and Patsy  Jan 16, 2010
 

Volume affects the Lake Arrowhead Community as  the decline in home sales volume and values is likely to be spread from restaurants to furniture to repairs and improvements. This five year decline is a setback as businesses and workers return to the beginning of the decade.

ARROWHEAD'S RISE AND FALL; VOLUME FOR THE DECADE HAS GONE FULL CIRCLE. Total volume in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts started the Centennial year with $135 million and ended at $134 million ten years later. Sales began to rise in November 2009 with many shoppers coming to the mountain right through the Christmas/ New Year holidays. We are encouraged, but the shopping focus is bargains. Winter weather often decides sales volume but the heartiest shoppers always come out ahead.                                           01/08/2010
   

4th Quarter 2009; Lake Arrowhead sales up sharply.

It might seem a bit early to get excited about three months, the fourth quarter of 2009. One special reason is buyers in this Coldwell Banker office of 60 plus agents. We write over 40% of the sales in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts. Together, we are a bellwether of what is likely happening in other offices.

For over two decades I have watched home shoppers disappear around the 10th of December, gone Christmas shopping. This week of 12/21, we still have home shoppers, genuine buyers. All offices currently have 40 homes in escrow. 		    Home sales:      2008                                                 2009
Jan-Jun= 08 Jul-Dec= 08 Jan-Jun= 09     Jul-Dec= 09
122 134 119 161
to Dec 22
With nine days to go in 2009, Arrowhead Woods has 284 homes sold, up 10% over the full year of 2008. However, bank sales in 2009 are over 25% of total sales.
 WILL BANKS MESS THINGS UP? The key to price stability is an increase in non-bank sales. Bank pricing destabilizes and drives down market values. Current low mortgage rates and consumer confidence are pivotal to a increasing vacation home sales. If banks (stupidly) flood our market with foreclosures all bets are off.

 

OPPORTUNITY 2010: FIND BIG SAVINGS IN ARROWHEAD
The number of homes listed - 328 - and sold homes in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts within the past 90 days - 87 - is the best bunch of homes in the past three years. The trend in sales is up with prices firm to fractionally inching up.
An ancient axiom is 'Money is made when you buy, not when you sell'. The pounding you may hear is opportunity knocking. It isn't sales talk to say there are some astonishing values in Arrowhead Woods homes. Are there 328 great buys? No way. Less than half of the homes for sales are truly exciting. The goal is to know which half ! Then, which of the 150 exciting values fit your budget range? Which fit your feature needs? We can help.Shop 'til you drop. The best go first.
SOLD PAST 90 DAYS Number Average % of TOTAL Now Listed
TOTAL SOLD 87 $396,000 100% 328
Bank Only 27 $237,000 31% 7
Short Sale 9 $553,000 10% 19
* Regular  Sales 51 $452,000 59% 302
*Regular...$100-$499k 38 $321,000   134
 * Regular...$500-999k 11 $674,000   100
* Regular...$ 1 mil + 2 $1,715,000   68
* Regular mean neither bank nor short sale     

FALL 2009: ARROWHEAD SALES INCREASE AS SHOPPERS FIND GREAT VALUES AFTER 3 YEARS OF FALLING PRICES.
Falling off the peak in 2006, Arrowhead Woods sales and prices crashed. As prices fell, so did sales in Lake Arrowhead. Our resort market could not recover until consumers had confidence in their personal financial future. Until the economy sent upbeat signals, it was easy to say 'not yet'. When the stock market picked up and employment began firming, it became time to check out Lake Arrowhead in pursuit of a 'deal' -- a foreclosed home (shown in past reports). Ten or so  foreclosures a month couldn't satisfy the growing desire for a mountain getaway. Foreclosures are sold 'as is' yet "doll house" prices are down too. Remember, the best go first.
FALL SALES beat Summer sales, a record low, distorting the public perception of our market. However we need to take 2009 apart to look into the prospects for 2010. Starting with foreclosures, as sales increased this Fall, the number of Bank sales are not going up. Thus we see a huge spread, nearly $100,000 between distressed sales (Banks) and non distressed sales. In round numbers, the median price in AW&LF including foreclosures crashed 19% from 2008 to 2009. BUT, taking out the Bank sales we find that prices for non distressed home sales declined 3% from 2008 to 2009.  

 

TREND   30 DAYS BACK     SOLD in the past 30 days   SOLD in 2008 for same 30 days   SOLD in 2009  Year to Date    Sold in 2008 Year to Date 
in Arrowhead   Median Sold   $289,000   $390,000   $325,000   $400,000
Woods and    Number Sold   26   19   253   237
Lakefronts    Volume   $8,832,200   $10,593,982   $117,990,598   $137,751,036
6-Dec-09   Highest Sold    $825,000   $1,350,000   $4,250,000   $5,950,000
MEDIAN PRICE WITH NO FORECLOSURES  16 $377,500 199 $387,000
MEDIAN PRICE OF FORECLOSURES ONLY 10 $190,000 68 $240,000

 

FORECLOSURES, DOMINATE?  We're nearly through the year so I thought we might focus on just Bank sales, the short term for a lender of any type foreclosing. As you scroll down the page through our ongoing market analysis, there is a steady dialog about the small roll foreclosures have in the big scheme of things    in this mountain resort community.
Total sales in the Woods and Lakefront is 267 for the year to date. Banks owned 68 of the homes sold; 25%. Bank sales are "as is" .
    $ (000)     Non Bank Sold  &  Median Price       Bank Sales & Median Price
2009 199 $387 68 $240
2008 210 $399 37 $300
2009
GAIN/LOSS Down 11 Down $ 12 Up 31 Down $60
NOT IN ARROWHEAD WOODS
No, Bank sales are not a big deal. The big deal is low sales, down about 40% from 'normal' for Lake Arrowhead. It's the economy... As the economy comes back, so are sales; up 8% over last year. The number of bank listings are not increasing, thus the median for non-bank sales is down just 3%.       12/08/09  
 Foreclosures 2009 1920-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09
No. Sold in year 9 14 26 11 2 6
Average (000) $232 $204 $232 $299 $290 $421
Ask vs Sell 103% 99% 101% 104% 97% 95%
Days to Recording 52 87 41 26 130 47
Bank Listed 12/6 3 2 4 1 0 0
Non bank listings 30 53 78 52 66 67

 

On 11-19-09 Arrowhead Woods TREND turned up around Labor Day after more than a year of declining sales and prices. Low sales were exaggerated by the impact of foreclosures, 8 or 10 of 23 to 25 sales through the Summer months. As the report at the top about high end sales illustrates, there was no decline in the median price for lakefronts. The mid-range of $500,000 to over $1 million, in the Woods, was tossed about, often unable to fit a conforming loan of $417,000 or less and few home shoppers. Thus home prices under $400,000 pulled the median down. We cannot imply that all is well, but we can clearly say most is not bad. The exciting news these days is the recent low mortgage rates, a boon to this resort market.

 

TREND   30 DAYS BACK     SOLD in the past 30 days   SOLD in 2008 for same 30 days   SOLD in 2009  Year to Date    Sold in 2008 to this same Year to Date 
in Arrowhead   Median Sold   $319,450   $369,000   $325,000   $400,000
Woods & Lake- Number Sold   30   25   253   237
fronts as of   Volume   $11,939,580   $11,402,000   $117,990,598   $137,751,036
19-Nov-09   Highest Sold    $3,995,000   $1,350,000   $4,250,000   $5,950,000

 

TREND DETAILS... 75% of the sold homes are under $600,000, the apparent result of low mortgage rates - under 5% - for loans under $417,000. The Conforming Loan maximum is $417,000. With 20% down it converts to a $520,000 purchase price. Comparing the 11/23/09 with the previous report, 11/07/09, the number of homes listed has dropped, sales have not. But, the sold homes had a signed contract about 45 days preceding the recorded sale which is then shown here as sold. 11-19-09
REPORTING 11/23/09 LIST VS SOLD $100-199 $200-299 $300-399 $409-499 $500-599 $600-699 $700-799 $800-899 $900-999 $1mil + $2mil + $3mil + Total
Current Listings 5 46 59 63 42 30 19 18 11 45 17 16 371
Sold in Last 6 mo. 18 53 35 24 13 7 6 4 2 7 3 1 173
PREVIOUS
REPORTING 11/07/09 LIST VS SOLD $100-199 $200-299 $300-399 $409-499 $500-599 $600-699 $700-799 $800-899 $900-999 $1mil + $2mil + $3mil + Total
Current Listings 5 48 57 64 45 29 19 21 10 47 19 16 380
Sold in Last 6 mo. 16 50 37 21 14 6 9 4 1 9 2 3 172

4 page REPORT 2009: 2004 to 2009 is a Rainbow... p1  o  Right Time??? p2   o   Average Prices... p3  o   Do's and Don'ts.. p4 ........   Each quarter of the year we provide a detailed analysis of the market past, present and a forecast for the coming year.

See every listing photos & details  www.Realtor.com/LakeArrowhead  Enter ML #  below map. o  Sold Homes not shown on web

LAKE ARROWHEAD WOODS is showing signs of an up-tick. Summer sales, 3 months, totaled 83 homes sold. Fall, now just 5 days short of three months, has 81 sales. We don't think we have ever had Fall sales matching Summer sale. Bargain shoppers abound. To the heart of things, increasing Consumer Confidence is boosting median sale prices above 2004 median prices.
Bargain hunters are falling all over one another. Foreclosures first! They are finding the average foreclosed home is now - Nov 09 - $260,000, on the market for about 16 days until the Bank stops accepting offers, will pay 2% above the asking price. The average home was built in 1975, has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. About 8 -10 foreclosed homes are sold each month in Arrowhead Woods.    11/25/09 Bob
SUMMER SOLD MEDIAN  Days to Recording ASK SELL % 
HOME OWNER 65 $405,000 147 94%
BANK SOLD 18 $225,000 65 98%
FALL SOLD MEDIAN  Days to Sell ASK SELL % 
HOME OWNER 55 $375,000 172 93%
BANK SOLD  26 $243,000 53 102%
   
LAKEFRONT HOME SALES ARE THE PICTURE OF PROSPERITY. In 2004 homeowners of lake edge properties saw prices rising, but the bubble growing, drew upon their past experiences, a lifetime of high income and success – and sold their Arrowhead getaway.

Sales shot up as prices rose in 2005. Only sales crashed in 2006. BUT 2006 prices rose, held steady for two more years, then rose again in 2008.

Arrowhead Lakefronts now have the highest median prices in our history. In 2009, sales are rising again.  Few in number, they account for about one third of the dollars exchanged for Lake Arrowhead real estate. 11/19/2009 Bob

Vacation homes are getting more attractive and affordable every week. While prices are low and likely bottomed out, the second advantage is mortgage interest rates.

How low can rates drop? I963 to October 2009 graphically tells the story. The lowest rates in over 40 years sounds like a sales hype. It isn't. This is the real thing! To date 39% of the homes sold are under $300,000 in Arrowhead Woods.

The recent upswing in sales has reached a magic number -- 258 homes sold in 2009 is the exact same number of homes sold in all of 2008. Bob 11-14-09
For Arrowhead Woods,  - Is it a recovery? The simple way is to look back to see lower sales in the past and higher sales now. Summer sales were June 33 sold, July 30, August 23, September 26 and October 35. In the mountains, sales rarely go up in the Fall. We see Summer as the base point for a turnaround.
Our resort depends on discretionary income to buy a second home. For mid to upper income families, consumer confidence is up. High end retail sales are climbing. Nationwide upper value home prices are inching up. Shoppers want bargains and they are finding them.
Study the table below. Check the sold home count vs listings. It isn't hard to figure out where the best prices are likely to be found; over $400,000 and definitely over $1 million. Good hunting. Questions, call us.  CHEERS Bob and Patsy 11-07-09   
LIST VS SOLD (000) $100-199 $200-299 $300-399 $409-499 $500-599 $600-699
Current Listings 5 48 57 64 45 29
Sold in Last 6 mo. 16 50 37 21 14 6
$700-799 $800-899 $900-999 $1mil + $2mil + $3mil +
Current Listings 19 21 10 47 19 16
Sold in Last 6 mo. 9 4 1 9 2 3

                                     

Have we met; associations, degrees, membership, family, mutual friends; something in common with Bob & Patsy? Pepperdine University MBA ... USC Behavioral Science ...Texas State U ... Rotary International ... Chicago birth... Minneapolis ... Dallas birth ... Richardson ... Travel visits, 31 countries... 7 kids... 9 grandkids... Marketing Consultant...Printing Co. Mgr...School Administration...AARP...Chamber of Commerce...Church of the Woods ... Palos Verdes - Redondo Beach ... Sales and Marketing Executives ... 100 year old Mom ... Police Captain Dad ... Banker Dad ... Abbott Labs ... Italian - Irish - Scotch - Center Staging ... Skateboarding Champ ... Rolling Hills Covenant ... Arrowhead Arts Assn ... You can see Patsy on Facebook ...