SALES ARE LOOKING UP FOR LAKE ARROWHEAD. FORECLOSURE ARE LESS IMPORTANT. RECOVERY IS AT HAND.
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Lake Arrowhead resort home market may be splintering
due to bank decisions on loan rates and buyer qualifications. Despite
that, Arrowhead Woods is stronger than last year and appears to be
gaining in sales. The split comes from Banks, their rates and borrower qualifications. The most desirable conforming rates, now hovering around 5% APR, an absolutely fabulous rate, top out at $417,000 loan amount. With 20% down the maximum purchase price becomes $520,000. Jumbo loan rates, above $417,000, are about 1% higher. Sounds good doesn't it? But lenders want only the cream of borrowers with golden financials! Second home purchasers and home appraisals get special scrutiny. Spring listings will add a large number of homes to the market mix giving buyer more choices. Foreclosures, trickling in 8 to 12 a month, will diminish in importance when compared to a larger inventory. Consumer confidence is inching up. Inventory is inching up. The national economy is inching up. If the banks would stop looking at every loan with a jaundiced eye, we could turn this into a meaningful recovery. |
Economists expect
sales and inventory to rise but no price gain in 2010.
Cheers, Bob and Patsy March 4 to 10, 2010 |
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LAKE ARROWHEAD LIVING
Arrowhead Woods & Lakefronts WEEKLY update on Arrowhead market prices, sales and trends Written by Bob and Patsy Bailey (click for Bio) Serving in Lake Arrowhead since 1989 For over two decades we have analyzed and reported on the changing character and future thinking for Lake Arrowhead. Questions? Call. CAR License Bob 01040125 & Patsy 01231486 |
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HIGH-END ARROWHEAD SELLERS LOWER SIGHTS. ONLY 7% OF MARKET, SALES AND PRICES SLIP FOR 4TH YEAR
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DISAPPOINTING SALES OF HIGH-END, MILLION
PLUS homes in Lake Arrowhead is still the pattern. Often
identified with the highest discretionary income, owners have
struggled to hold the price line they set for their homes. Buyers have
backed away from the price range. There is intense pressure on lenders
to take only the best qualified home buyers with up to 30% down. |
LISTING
PRICES DROPPED SHARPLY IN 2009 despite the near leveling of sales.Matching the LA Times report of high- end home sellers lowering their sights, Lake Arrowhead owners have heard the drum beat. The spread in listing price (blue) and selling price (red) has averaged 10% over the years. The median sale price in 2004, the year before the bubble breakout, was $1,330,000, hitting $1,506,000in 2007 and falling back to $1,350,000 in 2009. The start and finish of the bubble was essentially no change. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy Week of Feb 25 to Mar 3, 2010 |
'OLYMPIC GOLD' FOR THE BARGAIN HUNTERS IS HERE. GOOD DEALS. TO FIND THAT 'ONE DEAL' IS CHALLENGING
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As we look at the
upside to this slowly recovering real estate economy in
Lake Arrowhead, it would be wise to look beyond Bank sales. There were
76 last year of 300 homes sold. The percentage looks huge - but for six
sales each month on average, there were 19 sales that were not run
through the Bank mill. Bank sales are "as is", no recourse. They are getting multiple offers and the Bank requests a second "final and best offer" after all offers are in. Banks are getting more than the advertised price. And the condition of some homes, reflect an angry owner leaving 'his' home. Perhaps only 20% of all homes are cream puffs, ideally priced. The others aren't bad, but a home may have only one or two of the three or four most important features. We preview and filter out 75% to 80% of the homes that almost - nearly - not quite - fit the DEAL FINDER description. The challenge is which ones of the near 300 now listed are the DEAL list homes? Some home prices have not bottomed out yet, when homes prices are broken down by age and features. Newer homes prices are up a bit. No one knows where that bottom is - except that it is close. We know the bottom for sure a few months after it has gone up. Not very helpful to the purist 'bottom fisher'. DEAL FINDERS are talented professionals, not just 'throw it at the buyer's wall to see if it sticks'. We develop watch lists that have two goals; to find the best buy for a specific person, and equally or more important, to identify every best buy property because it is important to know. |
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A WATCH
LIST includes all new listings
from all sources, Banks, short sales, conventional sales and price
reductions. The new on the market listing may not be the best value in
any batch of listed homes. Homeowners that have been on the market from
a few to many months have a good sense of the prices and where their
initial offer took them - perhaps, no place. PRICE
REDUCTIONS from seasoned veterans are facing market dictated reality,
however they may be disappointed. We see price reductions of $10,000 to
$50,000 in one step - amazing - and the home is gone - so quickly some
agents never realize what has happened. A WATCH LIST works on two levels; the agent reviews incoming information once or twice a day to pick up on price changes and new listings. In an office as large as ours (CBSRR) we often learn by overhearing, asking a specific agent frequently, to find the cream puff and/ or not price goal I am looking for. Some call it espionage. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy Week 2-18 to 25,2010 |
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| JANUARY 2010 HAD 3 WEEKS OF SNOW, BUT BUYERS KEPT COMING. SALES ARE UP. PRICES? TOO SOON TO TELL. | |||||||||||||||||
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AFTER PRICES AND SALES
FELL FOR 4 YEARS, AN UPTURN IN FALL 2009, JAN 2010. WILL PRICES RISE?
RECOVERY RELATIONSHIPS 1 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE must grow for sales to rise, no matter how rich. We see the beginning of slow steady 'getting better'. 2 MORTGAGE RATES, lowest in decades, are likely to increase in 2010, as early as April. A rise will dampen consumer confidence. 3 SALES MUST GO UP TO GIVE BUYERS MORE CHOICES and make foreclosures and short sales a lower percent of the overall market. Buyers want to find a deal - not just bank sales. 4 INVENTORY DRAWDOWN / SALES MAY BE SLOW OVER $500,000. Jumbo, premium loan rates are required over $417,000. 5 AVERAGE ARROWHEAD OWNER STAYS 6-7 YEARS. But 4 of the last 7 years are inside the bubble. When will they sell? |
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| Cheers, Bob and Patsy | Happy Valentine Day and a
fun President's Holiday
2-12-10 |
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| THREE YEAR PLUNGE REVERSED: BOTTOM IN 2009 WAS OCT $300k, NOV= $308k, DEC= $343k, JAN 2010 = $396k | |||||||||||||||||
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SHOW ME THE MONEY.
A great start for 2010. Prices
turned up in November 2009 after a four year decline - the bubble had
burst. The peak was 2006 when the median price hit $$480,000. The fun ended with a 2006 to 2009 price free-fall of 38%. We'd like to blame foreclosures, 25% of sales in the last two years, BUT sales were at the lowest in 30 years; 258 homes sold in Arrowhead Woods in 2008 and 300 homes sold in 2009. As sales continue to rise in 2010, as began in 2009, 16% over 2008, bank sales will have diminishing influence on this market. January had only 20 sales, yet reached a median of $396,500. Anomaly? Clearly we cannot expect to see prices rise without a significant increase in sales. In the weeks ahead we will examine the entire decade - 2000 to 2009 in every age bracket to see where our price structure has been and where it is likely to go. |
![]() CHEERS, Bob and Patsy Week of Feb 4 to Feb 10, 2010 |
IS 2009 THE END OF THE PAIN? PLUNGING SALE AND PRICES LEVELING OUT. ECONOMISTS SAY RECOVERY IN 2010 |
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| TREND-LINE | SOLD IN | December 2009 | December 2008 | TOTAL for 2009 | TOTAL 2008 | |||||
| Arrowhead Woods | Median Sold | $343,500 | $390,000 | $325,000 | $399,500 | |||||
| and Lakefronts | Number Sold | 34 | 19 | 300 | 258 | |||||
| December 31, 2009 | Highest Sold | $689,000 | $1,350,000 | $4,250,000 | $5,950,000 | |||||
| FINAL FOR 2009 Table on right shows a 16% increase in homes sold over 2008 and a 19% drop in the median price. The worst is over. | ||||||||||
THERE IS MORE TO LIFE THAN REAL ESTATE. A view from our home at the peak of a beautiful winter snowstorm.
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LAKE ARROWHEAD REAL ESTATE TAKES A
HOLIDAY. Four seasons on top of a mountain reaches the ultimate with
winter snows. It began on Tuesday, heavy,
through the night and kept coming. Arrowhead communities have
had a near constant snowfall for four days - 3-4 feet. From our deck the snow on the
trees and peaks is spectacular. If you are thinking of coming to the
mountains, always check
http://www.rimoftheworld.net/ for weather, Alerts, Caltrans,
and the ever-fun Webcams. A sad aside, Putty Henck, a mountain icon,
pioneering family passed away last week. |
ARROWHEAD
MOUNTAIN COMMUNITES HAD A WHITE OUT, at times. Blowing snow,
steady flakes and sleet turned driving into a five mile per hour move.
Even Paradise has it moments.
The main roads are all open, in good shape for four wheel drive and/ or
chains. The Highway Patrol mandated chains for all vehicles on Friday
with the storm at its' peak. The mandate has been reduced to chains for
two wheel drive. This is Grizzly Road, our home street. Part of it is
still not plowed. Try to look way ahead before venturing. CHEERS, Bob
& Patsy 1/23/2010 |
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SALES TURN UP IN SECOND HALF 2009. PRICES FALL MOST OF THE YEAR. FALL 2009 MAY HAVE A PRICE UPTURN. |
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ARROWHEAD WOODS SALES INCREASED 16% IN 2009
REVERSING A FIVE YEAR DECLINE; COMING UP FROM 3 LOWEST YEARS IN 30
YEARS.
Sales in the last quarter of 2009 shot up
49% year over year. Exciting news! Confidence
is up sharply for Lake Arrowhead home shoppers. Rising
sales are essential to building a base for a price recovery. Economists
forecast a recovery of 10% increased sales with prices holding steady to
fractionally up. Note: Chart below covers 30 years. Chart on the right covers 10 years. ![]() published 1/16/2010 |
2009 PRICES FELT LIKE IT WAS 2004.
Our resort community opened the decade with a median home price of
$218,000. The first 'bubble' year, 2004, was $349,000. We peaked at
$480,000 in 2006 - a rise of 37% inside the bubble.
The ten year run ended at $325,000
in 2009, down 7% from 2004. At this point prices are settling but vary
greatly by the age of the home, newer homes faring best. In 2010 we will likely see
well priced newer homes as 'Best Buys' in Lake Arrowhead. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy
Jan 16, 2010![]() |
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SALES DECLINE AFFECTS COMMUNITY INCOME; FURNISHINGS, IMPROVEMENTS, REPAIRS, AGENTS, SCHOOLS... |
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Volume affects the Lake Arrowhead Community as
the decline in home sales volume and values is likely to be spread from
restaurants to furniture to repairs and improvements. This five year
decline is a setback as businesses and workers return to the beginning
of the decade. ARROWHEAD'S RISE AND FALL; VOLUME FOR THE DECADE HAS GONE FULL CIRCLE. Total volume in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts started the Centennial year with $135 million and ended at $134 million ten years later. Sales began to rise in November 2009 with many shoppers coming to the mountain right through the Christmas/ New Year holidays. We are encouraged, but the shopping focus is bargains. Winter weather often decides sales volume but the heartiest shoppers always come out ahead. 01/08/2010 |
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WILL IT ALL COME TOGETHER IN 2010? LOAN RATES, FEWER FORECLOSURES & SHORT SALES? A LONG SHOT? |
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4th Quarter
2009; Lake Arrowhead sales up sharply. It might seem a bit early to get excited about three months, the fourth quarter of 2009. One special reason is buyers in this Coldwell Banker office of 60 plus agents. We write over 40% of the sales in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts. Together, we are a bellwether of what is likely happening in other offices. For over two decades I have watched home shoppers disappear around the 10th of December, gone Christmas shopping. This week of 12/21, we still have home shoppers, genuine buyers. All offices currently have 40 homes in escrow. |
Home sales: 2008
2009
WILL BANKS MESS THINGS UP? The key to price stability is an increase in non-bank sales. Bank pricing destabilizes and drives down market values. Current low mortgage rates and consumer confidence are pivotal to a increasing vacation home sales. If banks (stupidly) flood our market with foreclosures all bets are off. |
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THINKING ABOUT BUYING? IS IT THE BOTTOM? WILL SAVE A BUNCH IN SIX MONTHS? OR MISS THE BRASS RING? |
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| OPPORTUNITY 2010:
FIND BIG SAVINGS IN ARROWHEAD The number of homes listed - 328 - and sold homes in Arrowhead Woods and Lakefronts within the past 90 days - 87 - is the best bunch of homes in the past three years. The trend in sales is up with prices firm to fractionally inching up. An ancient axiom is 'Money is made when you buy, not when you sell'. The pounding you may hear is opportunity knocking. It isn't sales talk to say there are some astonishing values in Arrowhead Woods homes. Are there 328 great buys? No way. Less than half of the homes for sales are truly exciting. The goal is to know which half ! Then, which of the 150 exciting values fit your budget range? Which fit your feature needs? We can help.Shop 'til you drop. The best go first. |
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'THE BEST GO FIRST'. 'HE WHO HESITATES IS LOST'. AXIOMS OF THE AGES, BUT THE CHALLANGE OF THE MOMENT. |
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FALL 2009:
ARROWHEAD SALES INCREASE AS SHOPPERS FIND GREAT VALUES AFTER 3 YEARS OF FALLING PRICES. Falling off the peak in 2006, Arrowhead Woods sales and prices crashed. As prices fell, so did sales in Lake Arrowhead. Our resort market could not recover until consumers had confidence in their personal financial future. Until the economy sent upbeat signals, it was easy to say 'not yet'. When the stock market picked up and employment began firming, it became time to check out Lake Arrowhead in pursuit of a 'deal' -- a foreclosed home (shown in past reports). Ten or so foreclosures a month couldn't satisfy the growing desire for a mountain getaway. Foreclosures are sold 'as is' yet "doll house" prices are down too. Remember, the best go first. |
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| FALL SALES beat Summer sales, a record low, distorting the public perception of our market. However we need to take 2009 apart to look into the prospects for 2010. Starting with foreclosures, as sales increased this Fall, the number of Bank sales are not going up. Thus we see a huge spread, nearly $100,000 between distressed sales (Banks) and non distressed sales. In round numbers, the median price in AW&LF including foreclosures crashed 19% from 2008 to 2009. BUT, taking out the Bank sales we find that prices for non distressed home sales declined 3% from 2008 to 2009. |
TREND-LINE LOOKING GOOD. FALL USUALLY HAS FALLING SALES. NOT SO THIS YEAR. AN OMEN? |
| TREND | 30 DAYS BACK | SOLD in the past 30 days | SOLD in 2008 for same 30 days | SOLD in 2009 Year to Date | Sold in 2008 Year to Date | |||||
| in Arrowhead | Median Sold | $289,000 | $390,000 | $325,000 | $400,000 | |||||
| Woods and | Number Sold | 26 | 19 | 253 | 237 | |||||
| Lakefronts | Volume | $8,832,200 | $10,593,982 | $117,990,598 | $137,751,036 | |||||
| 6-Dec-09 | Highest Sold | $825,000 | $1,350,000 | $4,250,000 | $5,950,000 | |||||
| MEDIAN PRICE WITH NO FORECLOSURES | 16 | $377,500 | 199 | $387,000 | ||||||
| MEDIAN PRICE OF FORECLOSURES ONLY | 10 | $190,000 | 68 | $240,000 | ||||||
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BANK SALES NOW AT 25% - BUT 25% OF LOWEST SALES IN 30 YEARS. TOUGHEST ON HOMES UNDER $400,000. |
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FORECLOSURES, DOMINATE?
We're nearly through
the year so I thought we might focus on just Bank sales, the short term
for a lender of any type foreclosing. As you scroll down the page
through our ongoing market analysis, there is a steady dialog about the
small roll foreclosures have in the big scheme of things in this
mountain resort community.
Total sales in the Woods and Lakefront is 267 for the year to date. Banks owned 68 of the homes sold; 25%. Bank sales are "as is" .
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NOT IN ARROWHEAD WOODS No, Bank sales are not a big deal. The big deal is low sales, down about 40% from 'normal' for Lake Arrowhead. It's the economy... As the economy comes back, so are sales; up 8% over last year. The number of bank listings are not increasing, thus the median for non-bank sales is down just 3%. 12/08/09
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ON 11-19-09 ARROWHEAD WOODS TREND TURNED UP... A BOLD STATEMENT, BUT THAT'S HOW IT LOOKS TO ME. |
| On 11-19-09 Arrowhead Woods TREND turned up around Labor Day after more than a year of declining sales and prices. Low sales were exaggerated by the impact of foreclosures, 8 or 10 of 23 to 25 sales through the Summer months. As the report at the top about high end sales illustrates, there was no decline in the median price for lakefronts. The mid-range of $500,000 to over $1 million, in the Woods, was tossed about, often unable to fit a conforming loan of $417,000 or less and few home shoppers. Thus home prices under $400,000 pulled the median down. We cannot imply that all is well, but we can clearly say most is not bad. The exciting news these days is the recent low mortgage rates, a boon to this resort market. Bob Bailey |
RISING SALES IN OCTOBER & NOVEMBER IS UNHEARD OF. BUT SUMMERS SALES WERE AWFUL. SO UP IS NOW! |
| TREND | 30 DAYS BACK | SOLD in the past 30 days | SOLD in 2008 for same 30 days | SOLD in 2009 Year to Date | Sold in 2008 to this same Year to Date | |||||
| in Arrowhead | Median Sold | $319,450 | $369,000 | $325,000 | $400,000 | |||||
| Woods & Lake- | Number Sold | 30 | 25 | 253 | 237 | |||||
| fronts as of | Volume | $11,939,580 | $11,402,000 | $117,990,598 | $137,751,036 | |||||
| 19-Nov-09 | Highest Sold | $3,995,000 | $1,350,000 | $4,250,000 | $5,950,000 | |||||
| TREND DETAILS... 75% of the sold homes are under $600,000, the apparent result of low mortgage rates - under 5% - for loans under $417,000. The Conforming Loan maximum is $417,000. With 20% down it converts to a $520,000 purchase price. Comparing the 11/23/09 with the previous report, 11/07/09, the number of homes listed has dropped, sales have not. But, the sold homes had a signed contract about 45 days preceding the recorded sale which is then shown here as sold. 11-19-09 |
| REPORTING 11/23/09 | LIST VS SOLD | $100-199 | $200-299 | $300-399 | $409-499 | $500-599 | $600-699 | $700-799 | $800-899 | $900-999 | $1mil + | $2mil + | $3mil + | Total |
| Current Listings | 5 | 46 | 59 | 63 | 42 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 45 | 17 | 16 | 371 | |
| Sold in Last 6 mo. | 18 | 53 | 35 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 173 | |
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| REPORTING 11/07/09 | LIST VS SOLD | $100-199 | $200-299 | $300-399 | $409-499 | $500-599 | $600-699 | $700-799 | $800-899 | $900-999 | $1mil + | $2mil + | $3mil + | Total |
| Current Listings | 5 | 48 | 57 | 64 | 45 | 29 | 19 | 21 | 10 | 47 | 19 | 16 | 380 | |
| Sold in Last 6 mo. | 16 | 50 | 37 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 172 |
FALL 2009 REPORT: 2004 to 2009 is a Rainbow... p1 o Right Time??? p2 o Average Prices... p3 o Do's and Don'ts.. p4 ........ Each quarter of the year we provide a detailed analysis of the market past, present and a forecast for the coming year.
See every listing photos & details www.Realtor.com/LakeArrowhead Don't miss even one listing. Check it every week.
BARGAIN HUNTERS ABOUND. FORECLOSURES ARE FEW. DON'T FRET. OTHER HOMES ARE PRICED TO COMPETE!
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LAKE ARROWHEAD WOODS is showing signs of an up-tick.
Summer sales, 3 months, totaled 83 homes sold. Fall, now just 5 days
short of three months, has 81 sales. We don't think we have ever had Fall
sales matching Summer sale. Bargain shoppers abound. To the heart of
things, increasing Consumer Confidence is boosting median sale prices
above 2004 median prices. Bargain hunters are falling all over one another. Foreclosures first! They are finding the average foreclosed home is now - Nov 09 - $260,000, on the market for about 16 days until the Bank stops accepting offers, will pay 2% above the asking price. The average home was built in 1975, has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. About 8 -10 foreclosed homes are sold each month in Arrowhead Woods. 11/25/09 Bob |
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| LAKEFRONT SALES IN DOLDRUMS, BUT PRICES HOLD, INCREASE. WILL LOCAL HIGH END DEFY NATIONAL TREND? | |
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LAKEFRONT HOME SALES ARE THE PICTURE OF PROSPERITY. In
2004 homeowners of lake edge properties saw prices rising, but the
bubble growing, drew upon their past experiences, a lifetime of high
income and success – and sold their Arrowhead getaway. Sales shot up as prices rose in 2005. Only sales crashed in 2006. BUT 2006 prices rose, held steady for two more years, then rose again in 2008. Arrowhead Lakefronts now have the highest median prices in our history. In 2009, sales are rising again. Few in number, they account for about one third of the dollars exchanged for Lake Arrowhead real estate. 11/19/2009 Bob |
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WHO NEEDS A VACATION HOME? NOT MANY. WHO WANTS A VACATION HOME? ALMOST EVERYONE. |
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Vacation homes are getting more attractive and
affordable
every week. While prices are low and likely bottomed out, the second
advantage is mortgage interest rates.
How low can rates drop? I963 to October 2009 graphically tells the story. The lowest rates in over 40 years sounds like a sales hype. It isn't. This is the real thing! To date 39% of the homes sold are under $300,000 in Arrowhead Woods. The recent upswing in sales has reached a magic number -- 258 homes sold in 2009 is the exact same number of homes sold in all of 2008. Bob 11-14-09 |
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BABY STEPS. SUMMER FEELS LIKE A TURNAROUND. CAN WE TRUST OUR FEELINGS? WATCH CLOSELY! |
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For Arrowhead Woods, - Is it a recovery? The simple way is to look back to see
lower sales in the past and higher sales now. Summer sales were June 33
sold, July 30, August 23, September 26 and October 35. In the mountains,
sales rarely go up in the Fall. We see Summer as the base
point for a turnaround. Our resort depends on discretionary income to buy a second home. For mid to upper income families, consumer confidence is up. High end retail sales are climbing. Nationwide upper value home prices are inching up. Shoppers want bargains and they are finding them. Study the table below. Check the sold home count vs listings. It isn't hard to figure out where the best prices are likely to be found; over $400,000 and definitely over $1 million. Good hunting. Questions, call us. CHEERS Bob and Patsy 11-07-09 |
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Have we met; associations, degrees, membership, family, mutual friends; something in common with Bob & Patsy? Pepperdine University MBA ... USC Behavioral Science ...Texas State U ... Rotary International ... Chicago birth... Minneapolis ... Dallas birth ... Richardson ... Travel visits, 31 countries... 7 kids... 9 grandkids... Marketing Consultant...Printing Co. Mgr...School Administration...AARP...Chamber of Commerce...Church of the Woods ... Palos Verdes - Redondo Beach ... Sales and Marketing Executives ... 100 year old Mom ... Police Captain Dad ... Banker Dad ... Abbott Labs ... Italian - Irish - Scotch - Center Staging ... Skateboarding Champ ... Rolling Hills Covenant ... Arrowhead Arts Assn ... You can see Patsy on Facebook ...